Overseas holiday bookings, like any industry, suffered at the hands of this recession – the Euro struggled and jobs were endangered, leaving little scope for a summer holiday booking.  But recent stories quote analysts as saying that Britain may already be slowly clawing its way out of the recession; that the nadir may have passed.  At the ITT Conference last week, John Walker, chairman of Oxford Economics, predicted the recession would end at the conclusion of 2009.  The pound has even hit a 2009 high against the Euro. But is the recession showing signs of ending for travel companies?:

Sunvil Holidays’ Operations Director, Chris Wright, comments:  “The recession may not be over quite yet, but people are certainly starting to think “I still have a job, I still have money… and I need a holiday.”

AITO Specialist Travel Agents’ Chairman, Barry Moxley: “It’s not over – but we are seeing signs that make us optimistic. People are still cautious and will remain so for the foreseeable future. However, queries are holding steady, footfall through the door is encouraging, operators are keen to provide sales & marketing support, and confidence is slowly returning.” AITO Specialist Travel Agents, a collection of 150 leading, independent travel agents, met in Gdansk from 11-14 June for their annual Conference. Barry was speaking from there.

Chairman of AITO, Derek Moore: “AITO are realists, and believe that, although things are improving, it’s going to take time.  That said, travel companies are in a strong position when the economy strengthens, more holidays will be the primary purchase – ahead of a new car, or new kitchen, because people will want to treat themselves and forget these dark days.”

Clive Stacey, Managing Director of Discover The World, comments: “Until recently we were seeing passengers booking much later than previous years.  But now we are seeing longer-term bookings pick up substantially, especially for next winter, as well as summer and autumn 2010.  These are in respect of weekends to Swedish Lapland (and the Icehotel) and school trips to Iceland. People seem far be far more upbeat about the future.”

IS JUNE THE NEW JANUARY?

With the recession possibly ending and deals aplenty to be had – offered by accommodation-providers and airlines keen to fill their summer space – June seems like the time to book your summer holiday.  It’s less brinkmanship than common sense.  So is the lates-market delivering as hoped?  And If June is the new holiday-booking hotbed, will it again be so next year?  Or will providers react with less last-minute deals, and greater patience?  Here are operators’ views on this year’s June market, and its long-term future:

Kirker Holidays reports that June sales are currently encouraging, with continued high demand for ‘last-minute’ holidays, booked within four to six weeks of departure. Ted Wake, Director of Sales & Marketing, says: “Kirker remains cautiously optimistic about its 2009 results, based on booking patterns to date. Whilst discerning clients are making their holiday decisions later than ever this year, we are finding that the array of special offers available – combined with added value elements, such as room upgrades and complimentary meals, that our reservations team can often secure at the time of booking – place Kirker in a strong position for a successful summer. We firmly believe that a Kirker short break should be an essential part of everyone’s 2009 recovery plan.” 

Explore’s Product Director, Peter Crane, comments: “We have seen a late booking trend for several weeks now, and with over 150 tours in Europe departing this summer, we’re expecting this trend to intensify over the next few weeks, as the July / August / September Europe peak approaches. Many regions, including the Middle East, Turkey, Thailand and Indochina, are up on June last year.  Europe in particular is booking late this year, especially non-Eurozone countries like Norway, Croatia, Montenegro and Albania. Late sales for Greece are coming in strongly now, possibly because Turkey has been popular and many peak date tours (and flights) are now fully booked.

“Customers have been reducing their booking lead times consistently for several years. This year the trend has intensified, but with many operators now reducing the number of holidays they’re selling there may well be a reaction next year – to book the trip you want on the date you want it may pay to book earlier.  Explore tours operate all year round, so although we’ve seen a trend in recent years for customers to book later it’s not specifically a May or June late booking peak.  We believe the internet offers the customer much greater transparency and certainty: itineraries, dates, prices and availability are all updated in real-time, and it’s easy than ever to shop around for the best itinerary and price. Fewer customers now are browsing holiday brochures in January: many feel confident to wait.”

Chris Wright, Operations Director at Sunvil Holidays, comments: “Although January was very quiet, February recovered to normal booking levels.  The peak season family market seems to have been delayed, but bookings are now coming through strongly.  The late market is very strong and prices are holding up.  People are often shocked when they call as they are expecting availability to be wide open and often they can’t get what they want.  We are seeing a recovery in Eurozone destinations, helped by the strengthening of the pound against the Euro.”

At Real Holidays, Managing Director Philip Davies says: “Before 9/11, there were very concrete British booking cycles for family holidays: a big boom of January bookings, and then a second strong wave in May.  Ever since then the pattern has changed, and this year due to the recession and declining Euro, we’ve seen more late bookings than ever before.  I see this trend of June bookings continuing next year; and where staff were once forbidden holidays in January, we may prohibit June breaks in 2010!  It will be interesting, however, to see how property owners and accommodation providers react to all of this last-minute business – quite feasibly next year there will be a lot less resorting to special offers if they haven’t received summer bookings by the end of May, as they’ll now anticipate this June boom.” Richard Mellor.